After seeing a 12.7 percent year-on-year rise in exports during the first seven months of 2025, the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) on September 4 raised its overall Hong Kong export growth forecast for 2025 from 3 percent to a range of 7 percent to 9 percent.

The HKTDC also released the export confidence index for the third quarter of 2025, with the current performance index standing at 53.3, up from 49.6, and the expectation index stood at 54.3, up from 49.

Irina Fan, director of the HKTDC Research, said that while it was tempting to celebrate this forecast, it was essential to bear in mind that the better-than-expected export performance in the first seven months of the year was driven largely by the front-loading trade strategy, the benefits of which will recede over the coming months.

As of August, the United States imposed high tariffs on many of its major trading partners. Beyond that, China-U.S. trade talks are ongoing, Fan said, adding that people should be duly cautious and refrain from being overly optimistic.

However, for the present, in terms of markets, the Chinese mainland and the ASEAN bloc continue to be seen as hugely promising with regard to their current performance, according to the HKTDC.

Nicholas Fu, HKTDC Research senior economist, said that from readings of the third quarter of 2025, it is encouraging that the majority of survey respondents expected rising or stable profit margins despite the challenging trading environment.